By Rick Schwerd |
Our investment team remains committed to sharing updates and market insights to keep you informed. Please look for
our next update on April 17.
Bounce Back Labor Market Report
Today's March labor market report showed a strong rebound following a disappointing February release. The economy
added 178,000 jobs during the month, the most since December 2024. This follows a loss of 133,000 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.3 percent.
A large healthcare strike and bad weather may have contributed to the poor February report. The first three months of
the year shows an average gain of 68,000 jobs, pointing to a continuation of the low-hire, low-fire jobs market we
have been in for some time. It is too early to know what effect, if any, the Iran war will have on hiring in the
U.S.
War Continues to Fuel Volatility
The ongoing conflict continues to drive market movements. We remain in a downtrend trend. However, headlines
suggesting an end to the conflict or an opening of the Strait of Hormuz have been met with strong rallies in
equities. This suggests the bull market could resume once the conflict is resolved, but near-term volatility with a
downward bias is likely until then.
President Trump gave a White House speech Wednesday evening outlining the reasoning for the war and the need to
continue it for at least another two to three weeks. There was no mention of a potential cease fire, which
discouraged market participants hoping for a more immediate off-ramp. This led to an 11 percent spike in oil prices,
with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaching $111 per barrel. This week, the S&P 500 posted its first
weekly gain in six weeks.
Another Tough First Quarter for Stocks
The S&P 500 ended the first quarter down 4.6 percent due to the
Iran conflict and subsequent spike in oil prices. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 6.0 percent, while the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fared better, falling 3.8 percent, benefitting from a higher weighting toward energy stocks.
First-quarter losses have not been unusual in recent years. Tariff fears led to a similar 4.6 percent decline in the
S&P 500 last year, while the Nasdaq fell 10.3 percent during the same period. It was a similar story in 2022,
with the S&P 500 losing 4.9 percent in the first quarter and the Nasdaq dropping 9.1 percent, with inflation
and higher interest rates to blame. COVID-19 resulted in a 20 percent loss for the S&P 500 and a 14 percent
drop in the Nasdaq in the first quarter of 2020. Only in 2022 did either index finish the full year negative.
SpaceX Files to Go Public
Elon Musk's SpaceX took a step closer to what could become the largest initial public offer (IPO) of all time. The
satellite builder and rocket operator filed IPO paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission, putting them
on track to potentially go public by July, which Musk has indicated as his goal.
Musk combined SpaceX and his artificial intelligence company xAI in February, creating a $1.25 trillion behemoth.
The company could debut as one of the top 10 largest companies by market capitalization when the IPO occurs.
The SpaceX IPO could set the stage for two more mega-IPOs later this year. Artificial intelligence companies OpenAI
and Anthropic could also go public later this year at valuations north of $1 trillion dollars.
Have a great weekend and as always, if you have any questions or concerns regarding markets or your
financial planning needs, please reach out to us at (518) 415‑4401.
About the Author: With almost three decades of financial industry experience, Rick serves as a
Senior Investment Officer at Arrow Bank. He oversees individual and corporate retirement plans, personal trusts,
investment management accounts, foundations and not‑for‑profit relationships.